INDIANA – GasBuddy, a PDI company, released its annual Fuel Price Outlook today with some good news for drivers: expect lower gasoline and diesel prices in 2024.
The outlook highlights key trends in gasoline and diesel prices, forecasting that 2024 will bring relief at the pump for consumers after two years of above-average gas prices, as several factors contribute to less of a pinch. GasBuddy expects the yearly national average will drop from $3.51 per gallon this year to $3.38 in 2024.
Highlights from GasBuddy’s 2024 Fuel Outlook:
- Gas prices could still fall below a national average of $3 per gallon this winter before starting to rise in late February, getting close to $4 per gallon as summer approaches, then mildly declining into summer, with hurricane season presenting uncertainty in late summer.
- Drivers in some California cities could again briefly see prices above $6 per gallon if major refinery issues develop during the summer. However, most major U.S. cities will see prices peak at or slightly below $4 per gallon in 2024.
- Americans are expected to spend $446.9 billion on gasoline in 2024. Average yearly spending per household will fall to an estimated $2,407, down 2% from 2023 and over 12% less compared to 2022.
- Electric vehicles (EVs) and the 2024 presidential election can impact fuel prices in the year ahead, with a potential slowdown in the EV transition at stake.
- Memorial Day will be the priciest 2024 holiday at the pump, with the national average price of gasoline expected to be $3.56-$4.04 per gallon on the holiday.
“As 2023 fades away, I’m hopeful those $5 and $6 prices for gasoline and diesel will also fade into memory,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy. “The global refining picture continues to improve, providing more capacity and peace of mind that record-setting prices will stay away from the pump in 2024. I anticipate we’ll still have some volatility, unexpected outages and disruptions, and potentially weather-related issues, but I do not expect it to lead to record prices. Offsetting OPEC+’s production cuts contributes to the rise of U.S. oil production, which now stands at record levels. Combined with Canada, North American oil production could further stabilize countries that have decided to curb oil production.”
The outlook forecasts the highest prices will be seen at the peak of the summer driving season in May, with the national average potentially rising as high as $3.89 per gallon. More uncertainty is expected with hurricane season in late summer. Diesel prices are also predicted to fall incrementally from 2023, peaking at $4.13 per gallon in March 2024.
Download the full 2024 Fuel Outlook here.
